Sports Betting

How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term

Published

7 months ago

February 10, 2025

CharlotteVance

How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term

Betting on underdogs is often seen as a risky strategy, but when approached correctly, it can be one of the most profitable long-term betting methods. Many casual bettors focus on favorites, assuming they have a higher chance of winning. However, sportsbooks often overprice favorites, creating better value on the underdog side.

A well-researched underdog betting strategy takes advantage of mispriced lines, public perception, and unexpected game dynamics. In this guide, we’ll break down why underdogs can be profitable, how to identify the right ones to bet on, and strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable

Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.

Sportsbooks Inflate Favorites’ Odds

Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites because they assume stronger teams will always win. Sportsbooks know this and often inflate favorite odds, making them less valuable from a betting perspective. This creates undervalued lines on underdogs, allowing smart bettors to capitalize on better payouts.

For example, if the public heavily bets on a popular NBA team at -300, the opposing underdog may be listed at +250 instead of a more accurate +200. This creates extra value for sharp bettors who understand the dynamics behind the line movement.

High Payouts Mean Fewer Wins Are Needed

Underdogs typically have higher payouts, meaning you don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.

For example:

If you bet on favorites at -200, you need to win 67% of the time just to break even.
If you bet on underdogs at +200, you only need to win 33% of the time to break even.

This means that even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still be profitable over time if you’re picking the right underdogs.

Market Inefficiencies Favor Underdogs

Sportsbooks struggle to properly adjust for underdogs in certain situations, leading to mispriced betting lines. This is common in:

Games with unpredictable outcomes (e.g., divisional matchups, rivalry games)
New or inexperienced teams (harder for sportsbooks to evaluate)
Injuries or roster changes that shift the game dynamic

By analyzing these factors, sharp bettors can find underdogs with real chances of winning at inflated odds.

How to Identify the Best Underdog Bets

Not all underdogs offer value, and blindly betting on them can lead to long-term losses. To maximize profits, bettors should focus on key indicators that suggest an underdog has a realistic chance to win or cover the spread. Analyzing team performance, historical trends, and market movement can help pinpoint the right bets.

Look for Strong Defensive Teams

Underdogs with solid defensive units are more likely to cover the spread or pull off outright wins. A strong defense can slow down an elite offense, keep the game close, and increase upset potential.

Example: A defensive-minded NFL team getting +6.5 points against an offensive powerhouse may have a better shot at covering the spread or even winning outright.

Identify Situational Betting Opportunities

Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for games where the situation favors the underdog, such as.

Home underdogs in primetime games (motivated by crowd energy)
Divisional matchups (teams are more familiar with each other, reducing talent gaps)
Favorites in letdown spots (e.g., a team coming off a huge emotional win might overlook a weaker opponent)

Track Line Movements and Betting Percentages

If heavy public money is backing a favorite, the underdog line may become inflated beyond its true value. Smart bettors watch for:

Reverse line movement (the line shifts in favor of the underdog despite more bets being placed on the favorite)
Sharp money backing the underdog (professional bettors moving the odds)

If the betting percentage is heavily on the favorite but the line isn’t moving, it might be a sign that sharp money is on the underdog.

Consider Coaching and Game Plan Factors

Some teams match up well against better opponents due to coaching strategy, playing style, or historical success. Coaches who excel at game planning for big matchups can make underdogs far more competitive than expected.

Example: In college football, an underdog team with an elite running game can keep the ball away from a high-powered offense, shortening the game and increasing upset chances.

Profitable Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

A well-structured betting strategy is essential when wagering on underdogs. While high payouts are tempting, a disciplined approach ensures consistency and long-term success. Whether betting against the spread, targeting moneyline underdogs, or using parlays strategically, each method has its advantages.

Bet the Spread for Consistency

Betting underdogs against the spread (ATS) is often a safer and more consistent way to profit. Even if an underdog doesn’t win outright, they can cover the spread and cash your ticket.

For example, if a +7 underdog loses by 6 points, they still cover the spread, meaning your bet is a winner. Over the course of a season, backing underdogs ATS can yield steady returns.

Take Advantage of Moneyline Underdogs in Close Matchups

Not all underdogs are extreme long shots. Sometimes, small underdogs (+120 to +180 range) offer the best value. These teams have a realistic shot at winning outright, providing higher payouts than just betting the spread.

Use Parlay and Round Robin Bets with Small Underdogs

Parlaying two or three small underdogs together can significantly boost payouts while maintaining a reasonable risk level. A round-robin strategy allows you to cover different combinations of underdogs, giving you multiple chances to profit even if one selection loses.

Look for Teams with Momentum

Underdogs coming off big wins or multiple covers may carry momentum into the next game. If an underdog has been outperforming expectations, sportsbooks might undervalue them, providing an edge for sharp bettors.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Underdogs

Even experienced bettors make mistakes when it comes to underdog betting. Some place wagers based on emotion rather than data, while others ignore important variables like injuries, fatigue, and public betting trends. Avoiding these common pitfalls can significantly improve betting performance.

Betting on Every Underdog

Not all underdogs provide value. Just because a team has high odds doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet. Always look for favorable matchups, trends, and market inefficiencies before making a wager.

Ignoring Public Betting Trends

If an underdog is receiving heavy public money, the value may already be gone. Once sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly, the underdog loses its betting edge.

Overlooking Key Injuries or Rest Disadvantages

If an underdog is missing key players or playing a back-to-back game, they may struggle more than expected. Always check injury reports and scheduling factors before placing a bet.

Final Thoughts on Betting Underdogs for Profitability

While underdog betting is riskier than backing favorites, a smart and disciplined approach can make it highly profitable. Sportsbooks often overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit mispriced odds.

By focusing on defensive teams, situational trends, line movements, and sharp money indicators, you can consistently identify underdogs with real chances of winning or covering the spread. Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success.

Ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that takes advantage of market inefficiencies and hidden value. If approached carefully, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable and rewarding methods in sports betting.

Sports Betting

Take an Early Payout for 2 Goals Ahead with One of the Most Exciting BetPlays Promotions!

Published

18 hours ago

September 18, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

Seeing your favorite team 2 goals ahead just got even better with BetPlays promotions. The early payout 2 goals ahead promotion will pay out your bet in full early in singles, multiples, and Bet Builder bets.

This is a perfect time to get in on one of the most exciting BetPlays soccer betting promotions. While available on selected leagues and competitions, the fresh promo is tailored for smart bettors who know their way around FT betting and match winners. Available on pre-match bets and the full-time result, here’s how this unique promotion works.

Table of Contents

2 Goals Ahead BetPlays Casino Promo – Terms and Conditions

The offer is valid to new and eligible BetPlays bettors. It applies to pre-match singles and multiples under the full time result market.
BetPlays’ promotion is active on selected leagues.
For single bets, BetPlays will pay early if your pick goes 2 goals ahead.
For multipliers and Bet Builder bets, the selection will be marked as won as soon as the pick goes 2 goals ahead.
The offer only applies to 90 minute play, including any stoppage time. It excludes extra time or penalty shootouts.

Which Soccer Leagues Does the 2 Goals Ahead BetPlays Canada Promo Cover?

League/Competition
Premier League	UEFA Champions League
English Championship	UEFA Europa League
Scottish Premiership	UEFA Conference League
La Liga	UEFA Nations League
Serie A	/
Bundesliga	/
Ligue 1	/

With so much action to bet on, we suggest trying this promotion on the upcoming Premier League or CL matches. The new format provides plenty of attacking opportunities, and if your team goes 2 goals ahead, why not get something extra off it?

Who Is This Promo For?

This BetPlays promotion is for all soccer fans and sports betting enthusiasts. It’s the perfect fit for the upcoming soccer matches over the weekend or the Champions League. Back your favorite team up and get an early payout when it goes 2 goals ahead!

Sports Betting

Champions League Betting Preview 2025/26 – Discover the Top Favorites and Contenders from Matchday 1

Published

3 days ago

September 16, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

The Champions League is finally back! With it comes our detailed Champions League betting preview guide that presents the key matches in action from Matchday 1 and the top predictions for the 2025-2026 season ahead.

As one of the most popular soccer betting markets, the CL gets a lot of attention from Canadian bettors. This goes double for the new format, which was introduced last year. The league phase counts 36 teams, making the Champions League more competitive than ever. Read on to learn more about the new format and the Champions League betting landscape for the new season.

Table of Contents

Champions League Format and Betting Landscape

Last year, UEFA decided to change the Champions League format to something that resembles the basketball Euroleague. Instead of categorizing teams into groups, it expanded the number of clubs involved and introduced a league phase.

The CL begins in early July with 3 qualifying rounds and a playoff round.
A total of 7 teams advanced through the qualifiers, joining the other 29 that are already qualified.
Each team is drawn against 8 opponents, with 4 matches at home and 4 away.
The 24 top teams from the league phase progress to the knockout rounds.
CL’s knockout round format remains the same, being played over two legs with the exception of the final.

With an expansion to 36 teams, the league features dozens of contenders and outsiders for the trophy. The biggest names remain top favorites for the final, although smaller teams that have nothing to lose can thrive under the new format. Last year, the new CL format proved fruitful, with a lot of surprises and plenty of goals – a welcome change from the previous seasons where teams calculated results each round.

Our Champions League betting preview will cover the most exciting matches from weekday 1, as well as the top betting options. With a range of options on offer including outright winners, top scorers, match odds, props, and live betting markets, bettors have an abundance of Champions League betting markets to look forward to.

Key Matchday 1 Fixtures

The Champions League kicks off on Tuesday, September 16 with 6 matches and 12 teams in action. It’s followed by two more days, replacing the previous format when the CL was played on Tuesday and Wednesday. Below are the top matches from weekday 1, with a few betting tips and insights on how they might go.

Champions League Betting Preview 2025/26 – Discover the Top Favorites and Contenders from Matchday 1

Tuesday, September 16
Fixture	Arsenal vs Athletic Club
	Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund
	Real Madrid vs Marseille
	Tottenham vs Villareal

Arsenal narrowly missed out on the final last year, and this year, Arteta’s team is going all in. The Gunners will have their work cut out for them against Athletic, a club that’s traditionally tough to bet at home. The CL betting odds point to Arsenal as the favorite. However, Athletic is no pushover, so the English team might face resistance in Spain.

Juventus and Borussia Dortmund will clash in another classic heavyweight in CL’s Matchday 1. The Italian team is favored as the favorite in numerous betting odds and predictions. However, Borussia has a lot of firepower up front, which means that goals are likely on both sides.

Real Madrid is a strong favorite for this match and a contender for the trophy. Under the new leadership of Xabi Alonso, the Spanish giant shouldn’t have much trouble in the match against Marseille.

Tottenham and Villareal clash in an exciting match that could be tight. Tottenham has the favorite odds, but Villareal may prove a challenge. Our betting tip would be to go for goals, as the odds might be better than picking a team to win.

Wednesday, September 17
Fixture	Ajax vs Inter
	Bayern Munich vs Chelsea
	Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
	PSG vs Atalanta

Ajax is years removed from its best performances in the Champions League. A completely different team than it was during the Frenkie De Jong era, the Dutch team takes on Inter in Matchday 1. Inter reached the final but lost last year, but it should have enough quality to see off the challenge.

Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at home in its first Champions League match this year. The Bavarian team has started the Bundesliga season strong, and should have enough in the tank to beat Chelsea. Sharp bettors might spot opportunities in the live betting section or go with goal betting instead.

Liverpool’s first opponent in the CL this year is Atletico Madrid. The Reds have started the Premier League season in style, while Simeone’s team is struggling in La Liga. Based on this alone, Liverpool should be a winner, although goals are expected on both sides.

Defending champion Paris Saint Germain hosts Atalanta in another exciting match. While missing a few key figures—and the coach—PSG remains a heavy favorite for this match and should be able to beat Atalanta.

Thursday, September 18
Fixture	Manchester City vs Napoli
	Newcastle United vs Barcelona

On the last day of CL’s Matchday 1, we have two heavyweight clashes. Manchester City is facing Italian champion Napoli in the most interesting fixture. Pep Guardiola’s team started the season eratically, but is looking good before this clash, beating Manchester United in the last Premier League match. Napoli is bolstered by the arrival of former Manchester City star Kevin de Bruyne, who’s surely poised to put in a great performance. This is a tight match and a possible goalfest on both sides, so that would be our prediction.

Barcelona is visiting Newcastle in another high-profile match. The Spanish champion is light years ahead of Newcastle, although porous defense might provide opportunities for the English team. But overall Barcelona is the favorite and a contender for the trophy, and should win this match.

Top Champions League Betting Favorites

The teams in the table below are current favorites to win the trophy in our Champions League betting preview. Liverpool and Barcelona sit at the top, with PSG and Real Madrid behind them. These teams represent the main CL betting outright winner favorites, and offer solid value to bettors.

Team	Odds
Liverpool	7.00
Barcelona	7.00
PSG	7.50
Real Madrid	9.00
Manchester City	10.00
Chelsea	12.00
Bayern Munich	13.00

*Note: Source: BetPlays. Odds are subject to change.

Popular Champions League Betting Markets

Soccer betting fans have a variety of CL betting markets to pick from starting this week. The best among them go beyond simple match winners. We’ll cover the most popular Champions League betting markets below, including props, top goalscorer, and more.

Match winner: the simplest and most popular CL betting market. With it, bettors can choose the winner of a match, picking the home or away team to beat their opponent.
Outright winner: this market refers to the top contender for the trophy. Bettors can pick the side they believe can win the CL, but must wait for the end of the season for the results.
Goal betting: when a match is too tight, bettors can turn to goal betting. Opportunities include goals on both sides, goals per half, or the total number of goals a team may score.
Over/Under: the O/U market allows bettors to predict the number of total goals in a CL match. Bookmakers set a line for goals such as 2.5, and bettors can predict if the totals are under or over that number.
First scorer: another simple market that could offer solid returns. Back the player you think might score first and you may be in for a good profit.
Prop bets: prop bets refer to individual bets and performances. For example, bettors might pick Harry Kane to score in a match, or Lamine Yamal to provide an assist.
Live Champions League betting: live CL betting remains a good option for sharp-minded bettors. It offers opportunities such as next goalscorer or goal on any side, as well as in-play betting on corners, cards, and more.

Final Thoughts

Bettors couldn’t be more excited about the return of the Champions League. In our Champions League preview, we’ve covered the best action from the upcoming Matchday 1, as well as the main contenders for the trophy.

The first week of action jumps straight into several high-profile clashes. With the new format and no calculations about return legs, tricky matches are suitable for savvy bettors. Underdogs have shown last season that they can slay giants, and we expect this trend to continue.

With so many CL betting markets on offer, there’s no shortage of opportunities. The road to Wembley 2026 starts here. Make sure to come back every week and get ready with our betting tips and predictions for an exciting Champions League campaign!

Sports Betting

US Open Quarterfinals 2025 – Discover the Best Bets for and US Open Odds for all the Matchups

Published

2 weeks ago

September 2, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

Last updated: September 2, 2025

The last Grand Slam tournament of the year is already underway, with the quarterfinal matchups set up last night. Barring a few early surprises, the ATP US Open quarterfinals feature the world’s top players. Top seeds are looking to book a spot in the semifinals, but no player who reached the quarters can be written off.

As soon as the quarterfinals matchups are set, excitement builds up in regards to the US Open odds. There’s growing interest in this state of the tournament, even for bettors who haven’t placed any wagers before. Our US Open quarterfinal betting tips and predictions will break down all the matches, providing bettors with expert tips and best bets at the US Open.

Table of Contents

US Open Quarterfinals Betting Predictions

Things haven’t changed much since our last US Open betting predictions. Jannik Sinner is still the main favorite to win the trophy, followed by Carlos Alcaraz. Both of them have booked a spot in the US Open quarterfinals, which might lead to a clash in the final.

Here are the top US Open betting odds for the players still alive in the quarters.

US Open Quarterfinals 2025 – Discover the Best Bets for and US Open Odds for all the Matchups

Players	Odds
Jannik Sinner	1.70
Carlos Alcaraz	2.20
Novak Djokovic	9.00
Taylor Fritz	21.00
Alex de Minaur	40.00
Lorenzo Musetti	51.00
Felix Auger-Aliassime	51.00
Jiri Lehecka	67.00

US Open Quarterfinal Draw and Betting Predictions

The best bets US Open are right here on this page. With the quarterfinals underway from September 2, we’ll have our US Open betting predictions below for all four matchups.

Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcaraz

Czech player Jiri Lehecka and Carlos Alcaraz will meet for the 4^th time on Tuesday. The Spaniard leads the head-to-head with 2-1, defeating Lehecka this summer at Queen’s Club 2-1. While Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite in this matchup and for the title, Lehecka has performed great in the past few months.

Of course, Alcaraz will prove a big challenge for the Czech, so it can be tough for him to defy US Open betting predictions and odds. Experts believe a surprise is not on the cards, aiming for a comfortable win for Carlos Alcaraz.

Why? The stats show it. Alcaraz has won 43 of his last 45 matches, losing only once to Sinner in the Wimbledon 2025 final. He’s been on a tear at the US Open this year, and considering his quality, he leads our best bets BetPlays US Open list for the quarterfinals.

Best bet: Alcaraz moneyline or Alcaraz to win 3-0

Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz

Even at the age of 36, Djokovic continues to defy any expectations. He’s right behind the Sinner/Alcaraz duo in US Open betting predictions, and still has the quality to win that elusive 25^th Grand Slam title. This year, Djokovic has been in great form at the US Open, reaching the quarterfinals with no scares.

In the US Open quarterfinals, he’ll face American Taylor Fritz. Djokovic has a perfect 10- H2H against Fritz, although the American has the support of the home crowd. Additionally, the aging Djokovic dropped a few sets on his way to the quarterfinals, which might present a US Open betting opportunity for Fritz fans.

Our best US Open quarterfinals betting predictions recommend a Djokovic win or a live bet on Fritz. It’s almost given that Fritz will take a set of Novak, so maybe a late break and a live set pick on Fritz is the best idea for this matchup. Also, bettors should keep in mind that Fritz played the final against Sinner last year. He’s younger than Djokovic, and probably the only underdog in the quarters that can pull off a surprise.

Best bet: Djokovic to win or Fritz live-set bet

Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musetti

As the world number 1, Jannik Sinner has obliterated opponents at the US Open so far. He’s also the leader per US Open betting predictions, with top odds to reach the final and win the trophy. So far, there was no challenge for Sinner, with Lorenzo Musetti aiming to upset the world’s best tennis player at the moment.

While strong, Musetti’s form at Grand Slams has been inconsistent. Sinner breezed past Alexander Bublik in the previous round. Bublik didn’t lose a serve before meeting the Italian, but was defeated in a clinical match with 6-1, 6-1, 6-1. With the last win, Sinner extended his hard-court dominance. Betting experts believe Jannik Sinner is in for another 3-0 win, which is one of the best bets for the US Open.

Best bet: Sinner wins 3-0 or Sinner moneyline

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur

The most interesting match in the US Open quarterfinals for neutral tennis fans and bettors is the matchup between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur. Canadian player Auger-Aliassime has been having a few quiet years before bursting to the quarterfinals this year. He upset Andrey Rublev in the previous round, announcing his desire to reach a first US Open semifinal.

Alex de Minaur is a proven hard-court player who’s looking for a first semifinal appearance as well. Per the latest US Open quarterfinal betting predictions, Auger-Aliassime holds a slight edge. Bettors should also consider the match to go the distance, as de Minaur’s prowess on hard courts might prove a challenge for Auger-Aliassime.

Best bet: Auger-Aliassime win or match to go the distance

US Open Best Bets at a Glance

Here’s a preview of the best bets US Open markets for each match in the quarterfinals. These are just our US Open betting predictions. Bettors are advised to do research on all the players and their H2H stats before making a decision.

Matchup	Best Bet
Sinner vs Musetti	Sinner to win
Auger-Aliassime vs de Minaur	Auger-Aliassime to win
Djokovic vs Fritz	Live Fritz set betting or Djokovic moneyline
Alcaraz vs Lehecka	Alcaraz to win

What Are the Most Likely US Open Quarterfinals Winners?

Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, Djokovic, and Alcaraz will most likely advance from the US Open quarterfinals. Bettors should take a look at live bets for Fritz and Auger-Aliassime that might bring decent value. A parlay is a good option, especially when choosing moneylines over other tennis betting markets.

FAQ

Who are the Favorites in the US Open Quarterfinals?

The current winners per the latest US Open odds include Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz, and Auger-Aliassime. However, BetPlays offers betting in different markets for the US Open, so bettors should explore opportunities before placing a wager.

What are the Best Betting Markets for US Open Matches?

The best betting markets include moneylines, set betting, and live bets. We advise bettors to look for betting value, which can be found in live betting markets as well as prop bets.

Can Underdogs Win in the Quarterfinals?

Of course. Surprises are likely to happen all the time. Tennis players often display their true value in the knockout rounds at Grand Slams, so keep this in mind before you place your wagers.

How do Live Betting Odds Shift During Matches?

Live tennis betting odds shift depending on the conditions and score of an in-play match. For example, the odds for Djokovic will go higher if Fritz leads after one set. The player’s form during the match can also cause a shift in the odds.